New Institute research: Does conservation impact voting?

The Institute is excited to host and co-advise a research project this academic year examining whether knowledge, access, and proximity to large protected areas affect the public’s desire to fund local conservation initiatives. Combining geospatial and statistical analysis, Institute staff will work with two graduate students from Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment to see if national and regional conservation makes marshaling support for local conservation ballot measures more difficult.

Previous research has found that conservation awareness does not necessarily lead to higher passage of public land ballot measures. In fact, a 2019 study found just the opposite. Dr. Agustín León-Moreta used US Census Bureau datasets and Trust for Public Land's LandVote database to explore which aspects of a city’s socio-demographic profile impact the likelihood of conservation referendum passage. Among five statistically significant variables, Dr. León-Moreta found that the more private conservation easements were found in a city, the less likely public land measures were to pass. He theorized that in voters' minds, these private easements represented an adequate substitute for publicly funded conservation initiatives.

The Institute will further this research area by exploring if a similar substitution effect occurs when large conservation areas already exist just outside of cities exploring their own public land protections and financing. Master of Environmental Management students Griffin Bird and Will Baughman will integrate US Geological Survey geospatial data on protected areas with the ballot measure data from LandVote.org to see if a substitution effect exists and if so, for which park distances and densities. The students' Master's Project will culminate next April with a full report and visual guide outlining the statistical findings as well as any policy recommendations for Trust for Public Land and other community conservation advocates.